The dust has now settled after a weekend where the results of last week’s elections dripped through slowly over several days, held up by Covid restrictions. The picture that has emerged is one of a United Kingdom that remains strongly divided, with the main parties’ fortunes varying wildly between the different nations, as well as between urban areas, towns, and the countryside. The Conservatives performed strongly in England, gaining control of 13 more councils and winning the Hartlepool by-election with a huge 16% swing from Labour. The media narrative has largely been one of Tory victory and Labour catastrophe. But look deeper and the reality is more complicated and highly geographically-dependent; Labour held firm in Wales, taking 50% of seats in the Senedd, while in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is demanding a second referendum on independence off the back of a solid pro-independence majority of MSPs in Holyrood.
Please read on for the Edelman team’s analysis of last week’s results, what they mean for the governments and citizens of the United Kingdom, and what happens next.