It has been a busy few weeks in Westminster. Since our last update, the Chancellor has given his final Budget of this Parliament, the first TV election debate has taken place and David Cameron has announced he won’t stand for a third term as Prime Minister.
Despite this frenetic political pace, though, the impact on the two main political parties’ fortunes has been negligible, if non-existent. Labour and the Conservatives remain equally locked in the mid-thirties in the polls, occasionally overtaking each other but rarely with the consistency or distance that either party would like. The debates haven’t moved the dial one way or the other: commentators state Ed Miliband came out on top, while the public (or at least the Guardian/ICM poll) supported the Conservative leader.
With this lack of momentum in the polls, the outcome in May remains at almost unprecedented levels of uncertainty. Just this week, the political betting site Bet2015.com had the betting public predicting 274 seats for the Labour Party too, a potentially unheard of match. What we can be sure of is that, now Parliament has finally finished the long run up to its dissolutions, MPs and candidates throughout the country will be furiously canvassing and looking to the political party manifestos, expected next month, to give them further ammunition to swing their local electorate.
As part of our regular series of Election Briefings, Edelman will be examining the key themes and latest developments in the race for Downing Street. This week our team of Public Affairs and Communications consultants explore how this campaign is likely to be fought. You can view and download the analysis here.